Michael Markowski has been involved in the Capital Markets since 1977. He spent the first 15 years of his career in the Financial Services Industry as a Stockbroker, Portfolio Manager, Venture Capitalist, Investment Banker and Analyst. Since 1996 Markowski has been involved in the Financial Information Industry and has produced research, information and products that have been used by investors to increase their performance and reduce their risk. Read more at BullsNBears.com
The date range for the SCPA’s forecasted relief rally highs for stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada to occur has been adjusted. Based on the adjustment the SCPA’s new 100% statistical probability is that the relief rally highs from the March 2020 lows have been reached or will be reached by April 14, 2020. Prior to the adjustment, the probability was 100% that relief rally high had been reached on or prior to Friday, April 3, 2020.
The adjustments were required when it was discovered that the empirical data for the Dow Jones Industrial’s index included Saturday trading sessions. From 1871 to 1952 the US market was open for trading on Saturdays. The inclusion of the Saturdays’ data distorted the SCPA’s date-of-event-to-occur forecasts since they increased the empirical data points for the researched periods by 20%.
All of the event forecast dates by the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analysis) which have been published are in the process of being revised. The only exception is that the final bottom for the Crash of 2020 will occur in Q4 2022 with a decline of 79% to 89% below 2020 highs. None of the previously published interim lows, highs, and final bottom percentages or price targets have changed.
As of Friday, April 3, 2020, all eight of the indices of the six countries had increased by a minimum of 18% from their March 2020 lows. The SCPA had forecasted on March 24th that the probability for each of the eight indices to increase by 18% was 100% and that the probability of a 23% increase was 50%. As of today’s April 6, 2020, close the Dow Jones Industrials composite became the first index to reach the 23% threshold with a gain of 24.5%.
My prediction is that the S&P 500’s secular bull market which began in March 2009 ended on February 19, 2020. The ninth secular bear since 1802 began on February 20th. Based on the peaks of the last three secular bull markets as compared to the troughs of the three most recent secular bears, the S&P 500 could decline by an additional 47% to 80% from its March 6, 2020 close.
Read my March 31, 2020, article entitled “Embrace the Bear” to learn about:
- investing strategies that are best utilized during bear markets
- investing in ETFs which go up when the market goes down
- algorithms including the Bull & Bear Tracker and SCPA ’s which are being utilized by investors