In part-1, we discussed the differences between a “correction” and a “bear market.” But what is often missed by mainstream analysis is the long-term damage done to investor’s financial outcomes. Bear markets matter more than you think.
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Over the long term, confusing market crashes and bear markets can be detrimental to investor outcomes. Yet, this is what Morningstar did recently in discussing the market correction in 2020.
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When discussing valuations it is assumed the “low future returns” means low returns each year. Looking at market cycles we discover that low future returns are caused by nasty bear markets caused by market excesses.
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The “Death of Fundamentals” has become apparent as investors ignore earnings to chase market momentum. Throughout history, large divergences between fundamentals and price have ended poorly.
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Throughout history, bull market cycles make up on one-half of the “full market” cycle. During every “bull market” cycle, the market and economy build up excesses which must ultimately be reversed through a market reversion and economic recession. In the other words, “What goes up, must come down.”
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In a world of adjusted earnings, where every company is way above average, every quarter, investors quickly lose sight of what matters most in investing. “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren BuffettImaginary worlds are nice, it’s just impossible to live there.
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After the longest bull market in history, investors who were betting on 6% annual rates of return to meet their retirement goals, are finally back to breakeven. Unfortunately, they are positioned for another set back.
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As we wrap up the last two-trading days of the decade, I am wrapping up…
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When I was growing up my mother had a saying, or an answer, for just…
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Flip on CNBC, pick up a financial paper, or scroll a financial website and you…
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Just recently, I was reading an article from Larry Swedroe which “discussed” the “Surprising Results…
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Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?” In today’s market the majority of investors are…
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The media is full of articles about the financial situation of Millennials in today’s economy….
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Just recently, CNBC ran an article touting the call of “Billionaire Investor Ron Baron” of…
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Read Part-1 Here Currently, it seems that nothing can derail the bull market. Trade wars,…
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Read Part-II Here Throughout history, individuals have been drawn into the more speculative stages of…
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Over the last couple of weeks, I have laid out the bull and bear case…
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Do you remember this commercial? The Etrade commercial aired during Super Bowl XLI in 2007….
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Just recently I ran a 3-part series on the variety of things individuals believe about…
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Click Here For Part 1 – The Savings Error Click Here for PART 2 –…
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Click Here For Part 1 – The Savings Error Click Here For PART 3 –…
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Click Here for PART 2 – You Don’t Get Average Or Compound Returns Click Here…
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Around 46 BC, Cicero wrote to a friend saying, “you must hope for the best.” To…
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Over the last eighteen months, stocks have whipsawed within a massive trading range as “trade…
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Last week, Jeff Desjardins of Visual Capitalist wrote in a post: “While it’s true that…
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Just recently, I spoke with Andrea Riquier, MarketWatch’s reporter on housing, about the issue of…
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I was digging through some old charts over the weekend and stumbled across this gem…
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In April of 2018, I wrote an article entitled “10-Reasons The Bull Market Ended In…
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The FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) Movement is literally on “fire” after Suze Orman recently suggested…
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Fox Business recently discussed a new study showing that more Americans doubted they would be…
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