The Illusion of Prosperity

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep, 27, 2017

For the last 50 years, the consumer, that means you and me, have been the most powerful force driving the U.S. economy. Household spending now accounts for almost 70% of…

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Chasing the Dragon

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep, 19, 2017

“There is no other agency of government which can overrule actions that we take.”  – Alan Greenspan The Federal Reserve (Fed) currently expects real economic growth for the foreseeable future…

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Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep, 13, 2017

Recently on our Twitter feed, @michaellebowitz, we introduced the hashtag #fedgibberish. The purpose was to tag Federal Reserve members’ comments that highlight desperate efforts to rationalize their inane monetary policy…

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Consumption Exhaustion

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep, 6, 2017

When people use the word catalyst to describe an event that may prick the stock market bubble, they usually discuss something singular, unexpected and potentially shocking. The term “black swan”…

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How Much Is Too Much?

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Aug, 30, 2017

The amount of monetary stimulus increasingly imposed on the financial system creates false signals about the economy’s true growth rate, causing a vast misallocation of capital, impaired productivity and weakened…

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A Peak Above All Others

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Aug, 23, 2017

“Valuations are still well below the peak of 1999” say the bulls. They are certainly correct from an absolute basis but we caution that the current level of market euphoria…

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An Indicator of Peril

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Aug, 9, 2017

Thanks to Jesse Felder, we recently stumbled upon a measure of economic conditions that has reliably signaled every recession since 1948. The data point, Real Value Added, is currently in…

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Cartography Corner

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Aug, 4, 2017

In the August edition of Cartography Corner, Global Technical Analysis (GTA) supplements their unique technical perspective with Elliott Wave Analysis to provide a long term study of the S&P 500….

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22 Troublesome Facts

Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jul, 26, 2017

olicy. In what we would consider to be a therapeutic exercise, 22 Troublesome Facts is a review of some of the bigger issues that continue to hold our attention. Our…

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