From the BLS release: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries, manufacturing, and mining.”However, the Birth/Death adjustment +175,000.“
The Birth/Death adjustment is a pure guess at what is really going in the employment environment – so without the guess the actual number is closer to 69,000 jobs. Subtract out the 65,000 jobs that McDonalds hired to flip burgers part time and we are down to about 4,000 jobs.
The underlying trends aren’t pretty. As we stated in our featured audio when you have 6 people applying for every job opening that tells you that the underlying strength of employment is not strong. This showed up in today’s BLS data as noted by Zero Hedge; “While the labor participation rate may have remained flat, the total number of persons not in the labor force as an absolute number just hit a new all time record of 86.248 million, higher than the previous record hit in February of 86.216 million. And just as relevantly, the total number of “people who want a job now” jumped by 232,000 from March to April to 6.482 million, just short of the previous record of 6.643 million. Can someone please redirect all these people to the minimum wage, part time jobs that just opened up at US fast food retailers please?”
Results from the household survey were very disappointing. Total household employment fell by 190k, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.0% from 8.8% previously. The labor force participation rate was unchanged during the month, indicating that the rise in the unemployment rate reflected job losses rather than an influx of persons into the labor force and follows four months of declining unemployment which resulted in a very slight drop in the employment-to-population ratio fell slightly to 58.4% from 58.5% previously, however, this remains at levels not seen since the mid-1980’s.
The problem remains the same with people that have jobs working longer hours for less pay and trying to make ends meet and the unemployment rate combined with the recently falling ISM reports and weak results from the manufacturing survey’s from the Fed Regions doesn’t bode well for Q2 GDP growth.