Stock Market Breadth: Warning Or Opportunity?
The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% from its January 27 all-time high. Unsurprisingly, the media is full of “red” headlines discussing the seemingly “endless” correction we are in. Unsurprisingly, previously complacent investors are now anxious, as nothing seems to […]
The 200-DMA Just Broke: What Every Investor Should Know
There are hundreds of technical indicators that market analysts track, but only one gets a live television chyron the moment it breaks. The 200-day moving average (200-DMA) is the single most widely followed technical level in global financial markets, and […]
Treasury Bond Yields Don’t Lie: But Wars Don’t Drive Them
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safety, money floods into U.S. […]
Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key
The S&P 500 closed at 6,740 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-December, as technical deterioration, collapsing payrolls, and $100 oil converged on the charts. Every major moving average has broken. Here’s what comes next. The S&P 500 closed at […]
SaaS: Is There Opportunity In The Destruction?
A specter is haunting Wall Street—the specter of the “SaaSpocalypse.” Since the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) peaked on September 19, 2025, it has fallen roughly 30%. For context, the broad technology indexes like XLK and QQQ are essentially […]
Is China Really Dumping US Treasuries?
“China is dumping US Treasuries to get out of the dollar.” This claim has been circulating the mainstream feeds lately, with the narrative that the “end of the dollar is near,” or “the US will lose its funding base” and […]
Market Sector Review: Extreme Market Bifurcation
Since the beginning of the year, we have discussed the “reflation trade” and its impact on specific market sectors. This past weekend’s newsletter also showed some of these more extreme returns in various market sectors since the beginning of the […]
Speculative Narrative Unwinds
For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.” Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, […]
The Market Cycles Potentially Driving 2026 Returns
Market cycles are once again at the center of the investment narrative as we head into 2026. The optimism is familiar as earnings held up in 2025, the economy avoided recession, and big tech lifted the indexes. However, those victories […]